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Analysis On The Development Of China Iron Ore Industry In The 2017 And Its Future Development Trend

1, The four major mining low-cost expansion of significant results

Under the strategy of expansion, the oligopoly status of the four major mines is stable. 2009, the four major mine production total 600 million tons; since 2010, the four major mines to adopt Low-cost expansion strategy, further crowding out market share, including China's high cost of iron mines and overseas non-mainstream mines gradually exit the market; As of 2016, the total production of the four major mines reached 1.11 billion tons, increasing by 85%. 2016, the four major mineral production accounted for a global ratio of up to 56.8%, the oligopoly is further stable, the 2017 ratio is expected to remain at this level.

2, The cost continues to decline, the price supports the strength to be strong

The four major mines reduced the space narrowed, the iron ore price formation support. After continuous reduction and efficiency, the cost level of the four major mines has been low, and the space for future costs to continue to fall is limited. Under the current price, the four big ore's profit space is small; to produce low-grade iron ore mainly FMG, Maori space is 11.4 dollars/ton; In the three major mines producing high-grade iron ore, Vale has only 16.6 dollars/ton of Maori space.

3, 2017 iron ore price shocks weakened, the premium prices rose, 

Imports of iron ore price shocks weaken, during the year, imports of iron ore price shocks weakened, high-grade iron ore price of 60 U.S. dollars/ton, low-grade iron ore price of 35 U.S. dollars/ton, respectively, lower than the end of last year 24.61% and 31.8%, high and low average price difference of 28.8 U.S. dollars/ton, up 108%.

4, The four major mine expansion cycle is basically over, 2018 production space is limited

The production cycle of the four major mines is basically completed, the output growth rate slowed down, 2017 years ago three quarter, the four major ore production total 840 million tons, up 2.7%, of which Q3 output year-on-year negative growth.

At present prices, miners will weaken further expansion, the four major mines, Vale of S11D and RT Silvergrass will release a certain capacity in the future, Roy Hill has reached full production, the first half of 2018 production has increased space, in addition to basically no other new capacity.

S11D expects to increase production by 20 million tonnes next year, Silvergrass 10 million tonnes, and Roy Hill increased production by 8 million tonnes, a total of 38 million tonnes.


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